Running Out of Oil? Not!
In "The Science of Getting Rich", Wallace Wattles says, "Nature is an inexhaustible supply of riches. The supply will never run short. The visible supply is practically inexhaustible. And the invisible supply really is inexhaustible."Now, that's a pretty bold statement. Can it be true? Since the news media would have us believe that we are running out of oil, maybe that would be a good test case to see if Wattles knows something that they don't.
First, the invisible supply. This one is easy. This is the supply of energy out of which everything is made. A recent survey of the cosmos added up all the mass that could be found - all the galaxies, star systems, black holes and other "stuff" - and compared it to the energy calculated to have been released by the "Big Bang". Surprisingly, they found that only 4% of the energy has showed up as "stuff" in the cosmos, leaving 96% left over, enough for 25 more universes!
Well, that might technically not be "inexhaustible" but it's close enough.
So what about the visible supply - the energy that's already hydrocarbons, like oil, coal and natural gas? This gets a little more complex, because there are 3 elements - price, distribution systems, and supply. Some deposits of oil and gas are cheaper to develop. Some distribution systems already exist. A disruption in this existing system can look like we're running out of supply, and the media doesn't know the difference.
The oil fields that we currently use are only one type of deposit. They are relatively cheap to develop and easy to refine, so that's what we use. It may be that world demand will grow to the point that these easy deposits won't be enough. But that doesn't mean there isn't any more.
In Canada, there is a hydrocarbon deposit called the Athabasca Tar Sands. The oil there is gooey and harder to handle and refine, and there is no distribution/refining system tailored to it yet, but there is a lot of it! Actually, the estimates are that this deposit is equal to 3 Saudi Arabias! Imagine that, right next door. There are deposits almost as large in Venezuela and Russia, too. When these all come on line, they have the potential to dwarf the production of the Mideast.
A similar situation exists in natural gas. We're told that we're running out of it, but actually we're just exceeding the capacity of the current distribution system. A recent article detailed the discovery of enormous quantities of methane gas (hydrates) trapped in sea floor sediments and in permafrost. A pilot project has demonstrated the feasibility of the production of gas from these deposits, but there's no distribution system yet.
How much methane is there? Well, the article said that only 1% of the estimated supply would meet the needs of the USA for about 170,000 years! I think that qualifies as "practically inexhaustible", don't you?
So we have found that we have the equivalent of about 9 Saudi Arabias in tar sand oil, and enormous quantities of natural gas in hydrate deposits. Yes, there's some engineering and distribution work to do, but we're good at that. Looks like we're not running out of oil after all.
Oh, did I mention that some of the oil fields that were thought to have been pumped dry are refilling slowly from below? Geologists are somewhat mystified by this development and there are a number of theories why this is happening. (Wallace Wattles would not have been surprised.) One of the most controversial theories was proposed by brilliant physicist Thomas Gold, who proposed that oil is not decaying dinosaurs. as we have been taught, but the product of a massive methane-based biosphere beneath the Earth's crust. If Gold is right, we've only scratched the surface of the oil supply.
Of course, Gold might be wrong. But those pesky oil fields are still refilling from somewhere.
Moral of this story: don't believe everything you hear on the 6pm news.
Moral #2: "Nature is an inexhaustible supply of riches. No person, therefore, is poor because nature is poor, or because there is not enough to go around." - Wallace Wattles
2 Comments:
I've just seen this article and cannot believe it. The tar sands that you think have so much potential have a negative energy value. The energy value is 1.5 units of energy to process one unit of energy as oil. Tar sands are not the answer as it takes more energy to process it than you back as energy you can use. Nature is inexhustable if you use solar power, there's only 6 billion years of it left, and that solar energy can grow oil plants to make biodesiel, but a lot of products can only be made from oil, so we have to conserve and ration what's left. 2003 was the last year any new oil fields were discovered,despite the advanced technology used to find them. No new oil refineries have been built in America for 30 years, what's the point if there is going to be less oil to process? And most poeple understand that oil production peaked in America in the 1970's. Oil is becoming so scarce that America and Britain are prepared to illegaly invade other countries like Iraq to exploit thier reserves. What a shame the people of Iraq are so upset by the occupation of their country that they are bombing the oil piplines and refineries and preventing the 'investors' who helped pay for the war from making a profit. As oil becomes scarcer and scarcer, more wars will be fought, agriculture will be disrupted, and in the chaos and confusion, millions will die. For every calorie a person in the West eats, 10 calories of oil energy was used to grow and disribute it. Your dinner has travelled 1,200 miles before it gets to your plate. Oil=food. As for methane gas, how exactly, will that run a car? How will it make the pesticides and fertilisers that is required for the way modern agribusiness operates? If nature were left to herself, she can sustain only 2 billion people on the earth. There are 6 billion in the world today. I think that mankind can overcome this, there was civilisation before oil and there will be civilisation after it, but in the meantime, people will have to face up to the fact that oil is running out, and that life will never be the same again once it is gone.
Dear Anonymous,
Thank you for sharing. I can see that you are fully briefed on the popular culture wisdom about oil. I, too, used to watch CNN so I understand your concerns. But you're not getting the full story. The media money come from crisis.
There are really four different issues about the availability of oil, and I think you may be compunding them together. These issues are - actual availability, price, technology, and human-caused economic disruption.
First, my main point is that we are not running out of oil. The tar sands deposits and the fact that some fields are refilling from below are evidence of untapped resources.
Price determines demand and supply. Both of these change slowly because as the price rises, it takes time for both users and suppliers to react. We have now, at currect prices, only caught up with the rate of inflation. Take the 35 cent gas of 1959 and inflate it and you get about $2. As the price rises, people find ways to become more efficient and suppliers find ways to develop new resources that weren't economical before.
Technology allows both the development of new supplies and the reduction of demand. Think fuel efficient cars. The tar sands fields will be tapped when the combination of price and technology makes it economical.
Human caused disruption is the big problem with oil. A recent series of articles in the Kansas City Star detailed how for 20 years, big oil companies have been buying up independent refineries in the Midwest and closing them, specifically to reduce supply and raise the price of gas. This was a big shock to me because I had thought, incorrectly, the the reason why no new refineries were built was because of environmental opposition. I was dead wrong. This is one kind of human disruption.
The biggest human issue by far, though, is the impact of the entry of China into the oil markets. You can't just throw 2 billion people into any market without major disruption. And we haven't even seen the real impact of this yet. In the short term, we can expect to see much higher prices and even shortages. But let me emphasize that these effects are human caused, and not because the earth is out of oil. Over time, the higher prices will reduce demand and increase supply again.
Unfortunately, in the short term, people are likely to react out of the false beliefs in scarcity and competition. These beliefs have caused most wars and will continue to do so as long as humans buy into them. Let's do what we can to replace those beliefs with those of unlimited abundance and creation, not competition. We can have anything we want if we're willing to create.
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